中国全要素生产率的估算:1979—2004

Estimating Total Factor Productivity in China

本文在分析比较了全要素生产率四种估算方法的基础上,估算出我国1979—2004年间的全要素生产率增长率,并对我国全要素生产率增长和经济增长源泉做了简要分析。分析表明(1)1993年以前,我国的全要素生产率增长率总体呈现出涨跌互现的波动情形且波动较为剧烈频繁,1993年以来,则呈现出逐年下降趋势,直到2000年才得以缓解,此后全要素生产率增长率总体呈现出逐年攀升势头;(2)1979—2004年间我国全要素生产率增长率及其对经济增长的贡献率较低,表明我国经济增长主要依赖于要素投入增长,是一种较为典型的投入型增长方式;(3)我国全要素生产率增长率较低的原因在于技术进步率偏低、生产能力没有得到充分利用、技术效率低下和资源配置不尽合理。

After comparing four methods of estimating total factor productivity,This paper estimates total factor productivity growth rate and analyses total factor productivity growth and sources of economic growth for the period from 1979 to 2004 in China. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) total factor productivity growth rate presented fluctuant character and fluctuated markedly and frequently before 1993,but declined steadily after 1993 and presented some appearances of turnover in 2000. (2) Total factor productivity growth rate and it's contribution of economic growth was lower which suggested that economic growth was input-driven growth for the period from 1979 to 2004 in China.(3)The reason why total factor productivity growth rate was lower lied on lower technological progress rate,technical inefficiency and unreasonable resource allocation.