人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994—2003

The Influence of Fluctuation of Real RMB Exchange Rate to Chinese Import and Export: 1994—2003

Marshall Lerner(ML)条件成立与否,是一国制定汇率政策的重要依据。在人民币面临巨大升值压力时,重新对ML条件进行检验对于我国货币当局制定汇率政策有重要的指导意义。本文运用协整向量自回归(cointegratingVAR)的分析方法,对1 994—2 0 0 3年人民币对世界主要货币的加权实际汇率波动与我国进出口之间的长期关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口存在着显著的影响,ML条件成立;人民币实际汇率波动对进出口的影响存在J曲线效应。

Marshall-Lerner condition is one of important foundations of macroecon omic policies. Now, RMB is facing pressure of appreciation. At this time, it's i nstructional to reexamine ML condition for central bank's constituting exchange rate policy. This paper is an empirical examination of long run relationship bet ween Chinese international trade flow and real weighted effective RMB exchange r ate to main currencies of the world from 1994 to 2003. The empirical result is t hat real RMB exchange rate remarkably influenced Chinese import and export,ML c ondition held and there is J curve effect in China.