汇率对贸易平衡的调节作用:文献综述

本文在回顾汇率对贸易平衡调节理论发展过程的同时,对理论之间的关系和适用性进行了分析,并对理论的发展趋势进行了推测。在归纳国内外汇率对贸易平衡实证研究发展过程的同时,对国外先进的实证研究方法进行了总结,并分析了人民币汇率与中国贸易平衡实证研究的问题。认为汇率对贸易平衡调节的理论应在各国的具体实证中不断得到发展和完善,吸取国外实证研究的经验和分析技巧,在实证中探讨理论也许是较好的研究中国问题的方法。

This paper, based on a review of the developmental process of the theories of and empirical researchon exchange rate’s regulation on trade balance, analyzes the relations and applicability of the theories, and speculatesabout their developmental trend. It also summarizes the advanced empirical research methods, and analyzes theproblems in the empirical research between RMB exchange rate and China’s trade balance. It concludes that thedevelopment and perfection of the theories should be based on each country’s empirical research, and assimilating theforeign empirical research findings and analytical skills can be a better method for empirical research in China.