货币渠道与信贷渠道传导机制有效性的实证分析——兼论货币政策中介目标的选择

本文运用协整检验、向量自回归、脉冲响应函数等方法,围绕国内外学者争议较多的货币渠道与信贷渠道,对中国由直接调控向间接调控转轨的1992年一季度至2004年二季度期间的货币政策传导机制进行实证分析。实证结果表明,90年代以后,从对物价和产出最终目标的影响显著性来看,贷款的影响最为显著,其次是M2,M1的影响最不显著,这表明,90年代以来信贷渠道在我国货币政策传导机制中占有重要地位。从对物价和产出最终目标的影响稳定性来看,M1比较持久和稳定,其次是M2,最后是贷款。由于对最终目标影响稳定的中介变量更易于调控,因此就货币政策中介目标的选择而言,M1优于M2,M2优于贷款。

In the paper, cointegration test, VAR, and impulse response method are used in this paper to carry out the empirical analysis of Chinese monetary policy transmission mechanism during the year of 1992-2004. The empirical results show that, since the 90s, from the angle of the influence significance to steady price and economic growth goal, loan is the most significant of the three, then M1, the last is M2; from the angle of the influence steady to the goals, M1 is the most lasting and steady, then M2, the last is loan. M1 is the best intermediary goal of the monetary policy.