哈里里遇刺与中东地缘政治生态变化

Assassination of Halili and the geopolitics-ecology in the Middle East

2005年2月14日,黎巴嫩前总理哈里里遇袭身亡,引发了黎巴嫩政局动荡和叙黎“特殊关系”的危机。黎巴嫩的教派权力之争,阿以冲突引发的矛盾,外部势力的插手、干预是其动荡的根源。围绕黎巴嫩动荡局势而展开的国际关系博弈正在中东上演:举步维艰的叙利亚使出浑身解数进行“绝地反击”;乘胜追击的美国拔钉子、促变革;渔翁得利的以色列除隐患、扩优势。展望黎巴嫩未来局势,叙黎关系、黎巴嫩教派分权制仍是两个不容忽视的主要症结。

The assassination of Halili in Lebanon has caused the recent internal turmoil influence within parties and religious sects, and a crisis in the relationship between Lebanon and Syria. Focusing on the civil war in Lebanon, this paper attempted to analyze the internal and external causes. Particularly from the perspective of geopolitics and ecology, this paper analyzed the new round wrestling between the superpowers, especially the U.S, Israel and Syria, which followed closely the former prime minister's assassination. Then, it suggested that it was time for Syria to withdraw from Lebanon, which might solve the problems.