气候变化对油松地理分布影响的研究

A STUDY ON THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF PINUS TABULAEFORMIS IN CHINA

本文在油松地理分布规律研究的基础上，运用自编的专门计算机软件ＣＯＭＰＬＥＸ和地理信息系统ＩＤＲＩＳＩ，找出油松的最适分布和极限分布的气候条件，建立油松地理分布和气候条件的相关模式，并以此模式确定油松的中心分布区和极限分布区。在此基础上，根据全球气候预测模型（ＧＣＭｓ）预测的２０３０年气候变化结果，预测气候变化对油松地理分布的可能影响。结果表明：气候变化后油松的极限分布区将发生不十分明显地北移，北界东部约向北移１．４个纬度，南界约向北移０．２个纬度；东西界向分布中心有所收缩，气候变化后，油松极限分布面积比当前气候条件下油松极限分布的面积约减少了９．４％；油松分布面积的减少，主要发生在海拔１８０－２００ｍ的地区。油松中心分布区的位置基本上没有变化，气候变化后油松中心分布的面积比当前气候条件下油松中心分布的面积约减少７％；中心分布区的南部由较连续的块状分布变为零散的点状分布。

A special computer program COMPLEX was constructed to determine the climatic parameters for the distribution region of Pinus tabulaeformit based on the research on the distribution rules of the tree species. Correlation models were constructed. The .central region, which is the most suitable distribution region, and potential distribution region of the species under current climatic conditions were mapped using a Geographic Information System IDRISI. According to the averaged predictions by 7 GCMS for 2030, aprojection was made for the future distribution of the pine. The results show that the potential distribution area of Pinus tabulaeformis will have a small northward shift indistinctively. The east part of the northern boundary will move northwards by 1. 4°, while the southern boundary will move about 0. 2°in latitude. The east and, west edges will both move towards the distribution center.The potential distribution region will shrink by 9.4% compared with the current area.The species will disappear mainly in the area with lower altitudes from 180 to 1200 m above the sea level. The central distribution area will reduce by 7%, and the reduction mainly happen at thesouthern boundary making the continuous distribution pattern discontinuous.