基于STIRPAT模型分析新疆能源足迹的影响因素

Impact factors and temporal variation of environmental pressure of Xinjiang based on STIRPAT model

在采用碳汇法计算新疆1957-2007能源足迹的基础上,利用STR IPAT模型,以人口数量、富裕度、能源强度、结构化指标和现代化指标为自变量,以能源足迹为因变量,应用岭回归方法拟合得到环境压力模型,结果表明:人口数量是近51 a新疆环境变化的主要驱动因子,富裕度的增长和城市化进程的加快对能源足迹的增长具有显著影响,而能源强度的降低和产业结构的优化对降低能源足迹,减轻环境压力具有重要作用;且富裕度和能源强度对能源足迹影响的时间差异显著。在观测数据范围内,分析结果不支持环境Kuznets曲线的论断。最后提出了控制人文因素对环境影响的相关建议和措施。

Human activities have dramatically altered the global environment,quantitative analysis on the impacts of human activities on environment is one of the highlights in the research field of sustainable development.In the paper,the energy ecological footprint index has been used as a impact measure of energy use in relation to consumption of people,which indirectly reflect anthropogenic pressure on the environment.Firstly,energy ecological footprint of Xinjiang from 1957 to 2006 are calculated.Secondly,utilizi...