摘要
1980~2003年,日本向中国提供了累计达3.3万亿日元的贷款,占所有双边贷款总和的比重约50~60%,是中国最大也最重要的援助提供国.这些日元贷款对中国经济增长的影响如何,这方面的研究十分少见.本文以发展经济学的援助评价理论为基础建立了计量模型,利用1980年以来的数据,对上述问题作了一个尝试性的评价.我们的计量分析结果表明,在1990年前,日元贷款对中国经济增长的贡献不显著,在1990年之后的作用则积极显著,这表明不同的政策环境与援助性贷款的相互作用导致不同的结果.
From 1980 to 2003, loans provided by Japanese government has cumulated to 3300 billion Yen and been the largest and most important source of foreign aid for China. Its ratio to bilateral external debt is maintained between 50 to 60 percent. Research on how these loans contribute to China economic growth is rare. This paper tries to establish an econometric model based on aid theory of development economics and to answer the above question using national data from 1980. Our econometric analysis indicates that effect of Japanese loans on China economic growth before 1990 is insignificant while that after 1990 is significantly positive, which shows that interaction between policy and foreign aid can lead to remarkably different results.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第5期26-30,共5页
Modern Economic Science
关键词
援助
日元贷款
经济增长
Foreign aid
Japanese loans
Economic growth