1979～2000年中国人口生育趋势：出生数据和教育数据的比较分析

Chinese Fertility Trends 1979～2000:A Comparative Analysis of Birth Numbers and School Data

本文研究中国从1979年开始提倡一对夫妇只生育一个孩子至2000年第五次人口普查的生育趋势.为此目的,本文对1979～2001年各生育调查数据与国家统计局每年人口变动调查数据进行比较研究.四普、五普的回推数据,中国国家人口计生委报表中的出生数据和公安部户籍中的出生登记也作为比较对象.鉴于材料中的矛盾,本文就分析教育部部门统计中的各种和出生数据有间接关系的记载、讨论它们内在的口径问题和它们所涉及到的工作程序问题.本文在这一基础上用小学在校学龄儿童年龄分组的数据来估计中国1979～1997年的生育水平和其他资料的可靠性.分析暗示出生数据漏报问题普偏存在,自教育数据算出来的生育数据比许多其他资料高.虽然如此,但自1996年以来比国家统计局的修正数字低.结果同时表明,中国1992年以来确实达到了低生育水平.根据教育统计资料计算的1997年的总和生育率为1.6左右.

This paper studies Chinese fertility trends from the beginning of the one-child policy in 1979 to the last census in 2000. For this purpose, it undertakes a comparative analysis of both retrospective data from the Chinese fertility surveys and the annual population surveys of China＇ s Natioanl Bureau of Statistics form the fourth and fifth population censuses, birth data form the annual reports of the Birth-Planning Commisson and birth records from the Ministry of Education＇ s household registration are also compared. In view of the large discrepancies between these sources, the paper then analyzes school data from the Ministry of Education with indirect links to birth numbers and the definitional and procedural problems posed by them. On this basis, age-specific data on primary school students are used in order to assess China＇ s fertility level during 1979～1997 and the reliability of other materi als. As the fertility trends calculated from school data surpass most figures from other sources, the analysis hints at wide-spread underreporting of births. Nevertheless, the birth number calculations for 1996 and 1997 are lower than revised figures from the National Bureau of Statistics. Despite the serious problems of underreporting, the analysis confirms that ever since 1992 fertility has been below replacement level. China＇ s total fertility rate as calculated from school data has declined to circa 1.6 children per woman in 1997.