汇率变动对FDI及东道国福利的影响

The Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on FDI and Welfare of Host Countries.

本文构建了两东道国吸引FDI的古诺竞争模型,并将跨国公司的投入分为可贸易品与非贸易品,以此分析了一国汇率变动对吸引FDI的影响,以及相关的经济效应。运用模型推导的结果,结合我国利用FDI的现状分析表明,人民币升值不仅会导致我国FDI流入减少和工资水平下降,而且会加剧FDI向我国可贸易品投入比重较大的劳动密集和出口加工产业集中,从而阻碍产业结构升级,最终导致我国社会福利水平下降。

We develop a two host country model of Cournot competition for FDI, in which the MNC＇s inputs are divided into tradables and nontradables. Based on the theoretical solutions of the model and the reality of FDI in China, we find evidence that an appreciation of RMB would not only decrease the FDI inflow and labor wage in China, but also cause FDI to converge to the labor-intenslve and export-oriented processing sectors, which are characterized with larger proportion of tradable inputs, and hence block the industrial structure upgrade, reduce the welfares of whole society.