因患寡,而患不均——中国的收入差距、投资、教育和增长的相互影响

Equality for the Sake of Growth:The Nexus of Inequality,Investment,Education and Growth in China

本文结合联立方程模型和分布滞后模型,研究了收入差距、投资、教育和经济增长的相互影响。研究发现:(1)收入差距在即期对投资有非常强的负面影响,之后影响变为正,再逐渐下降至微弱的负,从长期来看,收入差距对投资的累积影响始终为负;(2)收入差距对教育的影响较弱,其累积影响始终为正;(3)由于投资对于经济增长的作用超过了教育,因此收入差距对于经济增长的间接影响主要来自于投资的渠道。从累积效应来看,收入差距对于经济增长始终呈现出负的影响。同时,我们也发现,经济增长有利于降低收入差距。因此,控制收入差距有利于经济增长,并反过来有利于缩小收入差距,从而可能实现平等与增长相协调的目标。

This paper incorporates distribution-lag model into a system of equations to study the nexus of inequality, investment, education and growth in China. The major findings are ： （ 1 ） Inequality has strong instant negative effect on investment. The effect turns to be positive and then falls down gradually until weakly negative. In the long run, the cumulative effect of inequality on investment is negative. （2） Inequality has moderate effect on education, and the cumulative effect is positive. （3） The effect of inequality on investment overweighs its effect on education, so inequality has a strong indirect effect on growth instantaneously. The effect turns positive and then weakly negative. The cumulative effect of inequality on growth is always negative. Besides, we also find growth reduces inequality. Therefore, narrowing inequality enhances growth, and conversely mitigates inequality. Equality and growth can be achieved simultaneously.