中国上市公司盈余管理的频率与幅度

Frequency and Magnitude of Earnings Management of Listed Companies in China

盈余管理频率和幅度是投资者保护程度在现实经济中的具体体现。然而,已有文献在盈余管理频率或者幅度方面所提供的证据还远远不足以揭示客观事实。本文运用所有研究样本的报告盈余信息,通过假设报告盈余服从混合正态分布,运用参数估计的方法对阈值处的盈余管理频率和幅度进行推断。研究结论表明,中国上市公司从1995年至2003年间都存在为避免报告亏损而进行的盈余管理。1996年、1997年以及2001年至2003年的盈余管理频率和幅度较高,并且2001年至2003年逐年呈上升趋势。2001年至2003年平均有64·4%的亏损公司在阈值0点上进行盈余管理并达到避免报告亏损的目的,平均盈余管理幅度为提高ROA数据0·065。研究还发现2001年至2003年期间的盈余管理更加具有隐蔽性。

Frequency and magnitude of earnings management are the outcomes of investor protection in real economy. Earnings management research should not only test their existence, but also estimate their frequency and magnitude. Through assuming the real earning distributed as mixture normality, this paper builds a parametric model for earnings management using all information in the earning data. Based on the model, the frequency and magnitude of earnings management can be investigated. Empirical analyses show that listed companies in China did manage earnings to avoid reporting losses from year 1995 to 2003. Compared to the previous years, the frequencies are higher and the magnitudes are larger in year 1996 , 1997 and in year 2001 to 2003, and they increase along with time from year 2001 to 2003. On average, there are 65% companies with losses managed earnings and the mean ROA is managed upward by 6.5 percentage points from year 2001 to 2003. Earnings management behaviors are more hidden in year 2001 to 2003 than in the other years.