基于CGE模型的CO_2减排对中国经济的影响

Impact assessment of CO_2 mitigation on China economy based on a CGE model

为有助于中国在气候谈判过程中科学有效地维护国家利益,应用一个综合描述中国经济、能源、环境系统的递推动态'可计算一般均衡'(computable general equilibrium, CGE)模型,分析在中国实施碳减排政策的经济影响.以2010年实施碳税政策为模拟情景,定量描述了减排政策下国内生产总值(GDP)、能源价格、资本价格等宏观经济变量的变化.结果表明: 当减排率为0～40%时, GDP损失率在0～3.9%之间,减排边际社会成本是边际技术成本的2倍左右.在中国实施CO2减排政策将有助于能源效率的提高,但同时也将对中国经济增长和就业带来负面影响.

An integrated economic, energy, and environmental recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium （CGE） model was used to provide support for decision making in China climate change policy. The model was used to evaluate the macro and sectorial economic impacts of propected carbon emission reduction policies in China, with implementation of the carbon tax in 2010 as the scenario. The results show that the GDP loss is 0 - 3.9% for carbon reduction rates of 0 - 40%. The social marginal abatement cost is about twice the technical marginal abatement cost. The conclusions are that the carbon abatement policy in China would benefit energy efficiency improvement, but would have negative impacts on China economic growth and employment.