江苏服务业增长的偏离份额分析

Shift share analysis on the growth of Jiangsu's service industry

运用偏离份额分析方法,以长江三角洲地区的上海市和浙江省为参照系,具体分析了1990—2004年江苏服务业增长的结构效益和竞争力状况。研究结果表明:江苏服务业在增长速度和产业结构效益上略优于上海和浙江,但竞争力却显著低于上海和浙江。当前要重点支持和发展两个行业,一是投资少、见效快、效益好、就业容量大、与经济发展和人民生活密切相关的行业,二是对江苏经济发展具有全局性影响的基础服务行业。

With the shift share analysis method, this paper has analyzed the structure benefit and competitiveness of the growth of Jiangsu＇ s service industry from 1992 to 2004, using Shanghai City and Zhejiang Province in the Changjiang Delta as the reference system. The result shows that the growth speed and structure of the service industry of Jiangsu Province are slightly better than those of Shanghai and Zhejiang, but the competitiveness of the former one is lower than that of the latter two. Some policy implications on the above analysis are discussed and some suggestions are put forward to promote the development of Jiangsu＇s service industry.