我国地区经济收敛的空间计量实证分析:1978—2002年

A Spatial Analysis of Regional Economic Convergence in China: 1978—2002

本文采用空间经济计量方法，研究我国28个省市1978-2002年间实际人均GDP的P收敛情况。由于地区间的空间相关性对各地区GDP增长作用越来越大，本文分别采用地理空间权重矩阵和经济空间权重矩阵对各省市间的空间滞后和空间误差模型进行了实证分析。通过将25年的数据按每12年为一个时段，划分为14个滚动的时段，考察了我国地区GDP增长经济收敛情况变化的动态过程。结果表明。我国地区问经济存在收敛性，但是收敛趋势在减缓。

Using techniques of spatial econometrics, we study fl-convergence of real percapita GDP growth for 28 Chinese provinces and cities from 1978 to 2002. The spatial linkage of provinces and cities is described with a geographical contiguity weights matrix and an inverted economic distance weights matrix. For the two spatial weights matrices, spatial lag and spatial error structure are employed to carry out the analysis individually. By examining 14 rolling windows of 12 years each out of a total of 25 years, we study the time varying process of the regional convergence. We have found evidence for convergence, but the trend of convergence is decreasing.