技术创新扩散模型的探析

Probing and Analysis of Diffusion Model for Technology Creating Something New

技术创新的扩散或转移是技术进步的重要阶段或标志.对Raz,刘文阁和朱稼兴分别提出或者修正的技术转移的受方状态的模型进行了分析和实证研究,指出S形模型仍是描述创新扩散的一种简单、实用、拟合程度较高的一种模型.进而对朱稼兴所修正的模型进行了改进,得到了技术扩散中学习方技术发展状态的一个长期模型.

Technology Creating something new is spring of technology progress, and diffusion of trasfer of technology is a key stage or symbol of technology progress. Raz Baruch, Liu Wenge and Zhu Jiaxing, respectively, had given or modified receiver state model of technology transfer. This paper firstly explains that S-type model is a model of simple, applicable and higher guasi-degree for technology transfer as well. Next, a long-time model of receiver state of technology development in technology diffusion is obtained and Zhu＇s model is revised.