中国一次能源消费的碳排放区域格局变化

A changing pattern of regional CO_2 emissions in China

作为世界能源消费大国,中国的碳排放问题不仅体现在总量的增长方面,而且也体现在碳排放的空间格局变化方面。本文试图通过产业-能源关联和能源-碳排放关联两个基本评价模型,解析中国碳排放区域格局的变化。分析的结果表明:第一,产业结构的演进不仅决定着地区经济发展的基本状态,而且同样决定着国家一次能源消费空间的基本格局;第二,地区产业结构多元化程度越是走向成熟,其一次能源消费的增速也就越是减缓;第三,缓慢的一次能源消费结构变化是难以实现地区碳排放增长有效控制的关键。

Greenhouse-gas （GHG） emissions in China have aroused much interest, and not least in recent evidence of their reduction. Our intent is to place that regional pattern of CO2 emissions and its change in context. A lengthy time perspective is combined with a cross-provincial approach and addressed through two general models, namely the industrial-energy interconnection model and the energy-CO2 emissions interconnection model. The findings are salutary. First, they suggest that a diversified economic structure is the determined factor in not only the regional economic development but also the changing pattern of regional CO2 emissions. For instance, the numbers of over-heavy CO2 emissions at provincial level increased from none to two during the period between 1980 and 2000 as the local economic development dominated by industrial processes in the coastal zones gone rapidly. Secondly, they imply that the more diversified economic structure a region is, the slower increasing in energy use it has. The total energy consumption of East China between 1990 and 2000, for example, had 4% increase, when its ESD values rose from 10. 5 to 23, or achieving 36% increase. Finally, together, the findings argued that the stiff structural change of energy use in China makes it very difficult for any region to reduce its CO2 emissions. It implies that China could have a long way to go in the reduction of its CO2 emissions if the country still resists in the traditional energy consumption pattern.