可信性方法在深基坑施工期风险分析中的应用

Risk Analysis in the Construction stage of Deep Excavation Engineering Based on Dependability Method

随着深基坑工程规模的日益发展以及现有理论和施工技术的缺陷,在深基坑工程施工期间的事故也随之增加。因此,如何尽可能的减小深基坑工程事故发生率以及灾害损失,已经成为了一个迫切需要重视的课题,风险分析理论为此提供了一条可行的途径。然而深基坑工程事故资料的缺乏以及风险因素的不确定性、复杂性都给风险分析带来了困难。作者引入可信性风险分析方法,通过一个工程实例,首先对深基坑工程开挖期的主要风险事故发生概率和后果进行了分级,并采用基于权重的专家调查法进行调研,最后根据可信性风险分析理论得到深基坑工程开挖期的总体风险。

During the last decades, a lot of deep excavation engineering with large dimension have been used in highrise building and underground project and at the same time, accidents are increasing quickly. As a consequnce, how to reduce the accidents and losses of deep excavation engineering has bccome an important task. There has been an increasing concern on risk analysis of deep excavation engineering. But lack of accident data, uncertainty and complexity of risk factors result in difficulty in risk analysis of deep excavation engineering. In this paper, the dependability method is presented with a real project, the probabilities of key accidents and consequences of deep excavation engineering during construction is classified firstly, weighted expert investigation method is used in risk analysis of deep excavation engineering and the total risk of deep excavation engineering during comtruction is obtained by the dependability method.