资本外逃与金融稳定:基于中国的实证检验

An Empirical Analysis of Capital Flight and Financial Stability in China

关于资本外逃的经济金融效应问题,近20年来一直是经济学家们关注的焦点之一。资本外逃损害金融稳定吗?文章在借鉴国内外现有研究的基础上,编制了4个衡量中国金融稳健性的指数,并用最小二乘法分析了资本外逃对中国金融稳健性的影响。文章研究发现,从20世纪80年代以来,中国资本外逃对金融稳定构成显著的威胁,即使考虑经济基本面这一控制变量之后,资本外逃对金融稳定状况也有显著的不利影响,但是这种影响有一定的时滞效应。

Economists have argued about the economic and financial effects of capital flight for recent 20 years. Does capital flight harm to financial stability？ Based on the research from all over the world, this paper constructs four indices to reflect the Chinese financial stability over the period 1982-2002 and then analyzes the influence made by capital flight with the tool of OLS. We find that capital flight has definitely exerted an obviously adverse impact on China＇s financial stability since the 1980s, and such kind of impact remains unchanged even if we take the variable of macroeconomics into account. Simultaneously, our findings indicate that capital flight has been a remarkably time -lagged rather than an instant effect on the financial stability.