基于灰关联熵的喀斯特地区枯水资源演化趋势的探讨——以贵阳地区为例

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON LOW-WATER RESOURCE EVOLUTION BASED ON GRAY RELATIONAL ENTROPY IN KARST AREA—A Case Study in Guiyang Region

贵阳地区的枯水资源系统是一个耗散结构,同时也是一个灰色系统。本文把耗散结构中的熵和灰色系统、协同理论结合起来,并以贵阳地区的6个水资源分区为研究对象,建立枯水资源系统演化方向判别模型。研究结果表明,贵阳地区1998年到2003年其枯水资源系统的有序度变化从增加到减小再到增加,2003年以后灰关联熵又开始增加,系统有序度又有增强的趋势。因此,应采取有效的有序化调控措施,从而使贵阳地区的枯水资源达到有序状态,实现贵阳社会经济的可持续发展。

Low-water resources system in Guiyang region is a dissipative structure and a gray system. Using entropy, gray system theory and coordination theory, the paper establishes the low-water resource evolution direction model to study the six regional water resource regions in Guiyang. From 1998 to 2003, the gray relational entropy of low-water resource system changes from low,high to low value. After 2003, the gray relational entropy begins to increase again. So we must take effective action to make the low-water resource in Guiyang region reach the orderly state, which is good for sustainable development for the economy of Guiyang.