销售电价与用电需求的协整建模分析

The Co-integration Analysis of Power Tariff and Demand

在电力市场中,销售电价面临因市场因素变动导致的更多调整需求。销售电价的调整对用电需求的影响分析是实现销售电价科学化调整的重要环节,因此,该文提出一种基于协整和误差修正理论的用电需求与销售电价的关系分析模型。文中采用协整理论建立用电需求与销售电价的长期均衡关系模型,以建立的长期均衡关系模型为基础,并采用误差修正理论构建用电需求与销售电价间的短期调节关系模型,以便能够正确地分析销售电价调整对用电需求的影响。算例对我国某地区的销售电价调整进行了分析,其结果表明:文中所建模型能够考虑用电需求与销售电价间的长期均衡关系,针对该地区用电需求增长情况,可分析销售电价的适度调整范围;模型还能考虑用电需求与销售电价间的短期调节关系,能更全面、正确地分析销售电价调整对需求的影响。

In electricity market, the fluctuation of market factors brings about much more adjustment demand of power tariff. The influence analysis of power tariff adjustment to demand is the most important link in the chain of regulating power tariff scientifically. Aimed at this situation, the paper proposes a new analysis model that based on co-integration theory that aims at the relationship of power tariff and demand. First, this paper applies co-integration theory to set up the long-term proportionate model to realize the long-range equilibrium analysis of power demand and tariff. In the mean time, the paper also used error-correction theory to set up short-term adjusting relationship model between power demand and tariff on the basis of long-term model mentioned above. The results of the numeric examples that employ the data of certain area show the model can analyze proper adjustment range of power tariff on the basis of long-term proportionate relationship and the demand increase. The model can also analyze the influence of power tariff adjustment to demand considering the short-term adjustment relationship.