水库汛限水位动态控制方法研究及其应用

A Reservoir Dynamic Flood Limited Water Level Control Method based on Real-time Forecasting Information

在对水库汛限水位动态控制管理运用中涉及到的几个关键问题进行研究分析的基础上,提出在不降低水库原防洪标准的前提下,考虑短时气象降雨和洪水实时预报信息的汛限水位动态控制方法。该方法考虑了预报误差的规律,能在降雨和洪水发生、发展及消退的演进过程中,按预报信息种类和精度分阶段、分层次地判断洪水量级,并及时作出合理调度决策,既利用了不同预报信息,又考虑了各自的误差风险率,具有可操作性强、洪水资源利用率高的特点,可用于汛期全过程实时调度,运用于隔河岩水库,每年平均增加发电量3900万kW·h。

By considering the different ranks and risks of the real-time rain and flood forecast information, a reservoir dynamic flood limit water level control method based on real-time forecasting information was developed during flood season. This method can make reasonable and timely decisions based on the kinds and precision of forecast information in the course of the rain and flood from occur and develop to recession without decreasing the design flood prevention standard. Being make full use of forecast information and consider its risk, the method is convenient in operation and can obtain more value of floodwater resources in practice during whole flood season. The application of the method in the Geheyan reservoir show that it can generate extra about 3900×10^4kW.h electrical energy annually.