对我国居民消费的财富效应计量分析

An Empirical Study on the Wealth Effects of the Household Consumption in China

通过建立ECM模型,研究了中国居民证券资产和住房资产的财富效应。研究发现,从短期看住房资产的财富效应为负,从长期看住房资产的财富效应为正。为了发挥住房资产的财富效应,需要强化住房资产市场发展的措施,如消费信贷、住房资产证券化等。对证券资产来说,财富效应不显著,并且从国际上看,证券资产的财富效应也很微弱。因此,通过繁荣股票市场来促进证券资产财富效应发挥作用,可能不是一个好办法。消费需求最终主要取决于可支配收入,促进可支配收入增长、稳定收入预期是促进消费增长的根本途径。

In this paper we studied the wealth effects of the households＇ stock assets and housing assets in china through ECM model.We discovered that the wealth effects of housing assets is negative and feeble in the short term, whereas positive in the long run. So we should take some measures such as housing consumption credit and asset securitization etc, to make the wealth effects of housing assets effective. As for the wealth effects of stock assets, it is not obvious. From the international view it is also feeble. So it is not a good measure that make the wealth effects of stock asset active through improving the stock market value. Consumption mainly depends on the disposable income ultimately, so it is good measures to promote household consumption and economic development that makes DPI improvement and stabilize the expectation of future income.