电力消费与中国经济发展的协整与波动分析

Analysis on Cointegration and Co-movement of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China

运用协整理论研究了1978～2003年间中国电力消费与经济增长之间的关系,利用在此期间各产业产值与其用电量之间的协整关系检验结果验证了中国电力消费与国内生产总值（gross domestic product,GDP）增长之间存在着长期协整关系,短期内则存在着从电力消费到GDP增长的单向格兰杰因.最后采用H-P滤波技术分离了GDP与电力消费的趋势成分和周期成分,检验结果表明趋势成分之间及周期成分之间均存在着协整关系,这说明了电力经济的协整关系与经济的周期性波动有关.

Based on cointegration theory the relation between electric power consumption and economic growth in China druing the period from 1978 to 2003 is researched. First, using the estimation results of cointegration between output values of all industries and the electrical energy used by them during this period, the long-term cointegration between the real GDP（Gross Domestic Product） and electricity consumption in China is verified; in short-term there is unidirectional Granger causality from electricity consimption to GDP growth while the Granger causality from GDP growth to electricity consumption does not exist. Next the realistic evidence of above-mentioned relation is analyzed and the Granger causality results between the output of a certain department and its electricity consumption properly explain the relation estimated above. Finally the H-P filter is applied to decompose the trend components and the periodic components from the series of GDPs and electricity consumptions, the estimation results show that not only the cointegration exists among the trend components, but also among the periodic components of the two series, it indicates that the cointegration between the electricity consumption and economy is related to the cyclical fluctuation of economy.