我国国际资本流动影响因素的实证研究

Empirical Study of the Effecting Factors on China's International Capital Flows

本文对1982-2004年期间我国的国际资本流动状况及其影响因素进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:我国国际资本流动存在着数量上波动性和方向上双向性之特点,其主要影响因素是人民币汇率预期,其次是物价水平和名义汇率,而利率因素的影响并非显著。其政策含义是,在当前内外经济条件下,人民币升值并非可举之策;但在长远,资本流动的双向性决定了浮动汇率制度是我国汇率制度改革的必然选择。

This paper discusses China＇s international capital flows from 1982 to 2004. It turns out that China＇s international capital flows have the characters of quantity volatility and bidirectional. Its main effecting factor is the expectation to exchange rate of RMB, and then are prices and nominal exchange rate. However, the effect of interest rate on capital flows is not obvious. Its policy meaning is that the RMB revaluation isn＇t feasible under the present conditions of oversea and home. But from long-term point of view, the bidirectional of capital flows decides that the floating exchange rate regime is the inevitable selection of RMB exchange rate regime reformation.