我国产业结构与经济增长关系之协整模型的建立与实现

On the Cointegration-model of the Relations between Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in China

产业结构的演进与经济增长之间具有密切的联系。根据协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验理论，利用1978～2003年的时间序列数据进行实证分析，表明我国的经济增长与产业结构之间存在惟一的动态均衡关系即协整关系，产业结构与经济增长之间短期波动与长期均衡关系存在于根据协整方程建立的向量误差修正模型之中。分析结果还验证了配第一克拉克定律的正确性，但却否认了库兹涅茨的收入决定论，至少在我国，产业结构的演进是经济增长的原因而不是相反。

here exists close relations between the evolving of industrial structure and economic growth. According to cointegration theory and Granger causality theory, this assay carries a positive analysis on the association of industrial structure and economic growth with the time series data from 1978 to 2002. The conclusion indicates that there exists only dynamic equilibrium or cointegration relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth. The short-term fluctuation and long-term equilibrium of industrial structure and economic growth exist in Vector Error Correction Model based on cointegration equation. The conclusion also proves the Petty-Clark theorem which means economic growth is the cause of employed people's moving to tertiary industry. However it denies the income impact theory of Simon Kuznets, for at least in china the evolving of industrial structure can cause economic growth rather than the opposite.