过去50年吉林省玉米带玉米种植面积时空变化及其成因分析

Changes in Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Maize Sown Area and Its Causative Factors in Maize Belt of Jilin Province in Last 50 Years

吉林省中部的玉米带现已成为中国重要的商品粮基地。建国以来,玉米种植面积的时空分布发生了很大变化。过去50年间,吉林省中部玉米带的玉米种植面积占呈波动增加趋势,并在1996年达到最高值,1997年后又开始下降;1980年以后,即吉林省中部玉米带大规模产业化发展以后,玉米种植重心向东移动。对于玉米种植面积变化的原因分析表明,政策引导、农业科技和以及其与其它作物的经济收益比较优势是非常重要的驱动因素。另外,近些年吉林省玉米带年平均气温明显增加,冬季和春季增温较多,玉米带的玉米种植面积呈现出随气温增加而线性增加的趋势。

Maize belt of Jilin Province now is one of important bases for commodity food in China. The spatial and temporal distribution of maize-sowing have changed greatly in this area after the foundation of P. R. China in 1949. This paper studied the evolution process and the related driving factors of the changes to provide references for adjusting regional agricultural structure. The study showed that, the sown area of maize in maize belt of Jilin Province increased fluctuantly. It got the culmination in 1996, and descended from 1997. Our analysis showed that after the large-scale agricultural industry development in 1980, the gravity of sown area of maize moved eastwards. Among the driving forces, the policy induction, agricultural technology and comparative superiority over other crops were important driving forces. In addition, in recent years, it got warmer and this phenomena was more obvious in winter and spring. The sown area of maize in maize belt of Jilin Province took on the increasing trend along with the increased air temperature.