城市旅游的增长机制研究

A Study on the Growth of Urban Tourism

运用复杂系统的理论和系统动力学的工具,分析城市旅游的增长模式,构建城市旅游增长的基本模型,为城市旅游政策制定提供参考。大部分城市依赖投资基础设施、挖掘城市历史人文资源正反馈推动增长,但是这些增长的机制容易受到投资递减和资源容量的制约而难以持续,不能避免走入快速发展转为平稳的发展,甚至出现停滞、滑坡的增长模式。只有成功构建和发展商业网络、培育城市旅游的产业集群和创新机制,形成路径依赖增长模式,才能促进城市旅游的持续增长。

The patterns of urban tourism are analyzed and the archetypical structure model leading the changes ot the behaviors is built by applying the complexity theory and the tool of system dynamics. The growth strategies that most of the cities adopt, such as the infrastructure improvement and the exploration of the historical heritages meet the limits of growth because of the constraints feedback aroused with the growth due to the decreasing return of scale and the limited carrying capacity. As a result, these cities can not avoid falling into the pattern of rapid growth in the early stage, slow growth after a short time and then declining. Only the cities which formulate networks and tourism cluster and build a strong capacity for innovation can develop path dependent pattern of growth and sustain continuous growth.