黑龙江凌汛最高水位及冰坝预报模型

Model of Ice Dam Forecast and the Highest Water Level for Heilongjiang River Ice-jam Flood

根据黑龙江上游漠河、开库康等4站的多年水文观测资料,通过对凌汛最高水位及冰坝发生机理的研究,引进了流域最大释放水量、水位上涨加速度、冰盖相对强度等诸多因子,采用多种影响因子分析法建立了其预报模型。该模型准确率较高,物理成因概念明确,凌汛最高水位模型其精度都在90%左右。冰坝模型精度达到了80%。

According to many years＇ hydrologic observation data at 4 stations as Mohe, Kaikukang and so forth at the upstream of Heilongjiang River, though the study of the highest water level of ice dam and the mechanism of ice dam appearance, many factors are introduced such as the largest discharge setling at volley, acceleration of water level rising the ice cover strength and so forth, the forecast model is founded with multiple influential factor analysing method. The accuracy of the model is higher. The conception of physics factor is clear and definite. The precision of the highest level of ice dam is about 90 %. The precision of ice dam model reaches 80 %.