多变量灰色模型及其在钻孔瓦斯流量预测中的应用

Multivariable Grey Model and Its Application to Predicting Gas Flow from Boreholes

钻孔瓦斯流量直接关系着钻孔抽放煤层瓦斯涌出量及钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度的判定,因此研究钻孔瓦斯流量的变化及发展趋势具有较大实用价值。钻场中各钻孔瓦斯流量与其周围煤(岩)的渗透性、强度、瓦斯压力和地应力等因素之间是灰色的非线性关系[1]。笔者把钻场中互相影响的各钻孔看作一个系统,建立多变量灰色模型(MGM(1,n));借助MATLAB软件,实现对钻场中多钻孔的瓦斯流量的预测;克服了过去钻场中单钻孔瓦斯流量预测的结果与实际测量值吻合程度不理想的弊端。与此同时,结合工程实例,将多变量模型模拟和单点模型模拟的结果进行比较,其结果表明多变量灰色模型预测精度较高,对瓦斯抽放设计和矿井安全生产具有较大的指导意义。

Gas flow from borehole directly relates to the gas emission from drill drainage coal bed an judging the initial velocity of gas emission from the borehole.Therefore the study on the change and trend of gas flow has significant practical value.Gas flow from every borehole in the borehole field has grey and non-linear relationship with the factors of the periphery coal （rock） such as penetrability,intensity,gas pressure and crustal stress.The boreholes affecting each other in the field are taken as a system.A multivariable grey model （MGM （1,n）） is established.With the aid of MATLAB software,the prediction of gas flow from the boreholes is accomplished,which overcomes the problem that the predicated value of single-borehole model could not accurately comply with the metrical value in the past.The model is exemplified with a real case in which the predicted values of two models are compared.The result indicates that the multivariable grey model is much higher in its precision and could be taken as guidance in gas drainage and mine safety.