中国农产品出口贸易与农业经济增长——基于协整分析和Granger因果检验

Agricultural Products Export and Agricultural Economic Growth in China——Based on the Cointegration and Granger Causality Estimation

本文根据协整理论和Granger因果检验方法,对中国自改革开放以来(1980-2004年)的农产品出口与农业经济增长进行了实证分析。结果表明,农产品出口总额与农业经济增长以及劳动密集型农产品出口、土地密集型农产品出口与农业经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系;农产品出口增长与农业经济增长之间存在单向的Granger因果关系,劳动密集型农产品出口增长与农业经济增长之间存在双向因果关系,而土地密集型农产品出口增长与农业经济增长之间没有Granger因果关系。

Based on Johansen＇s cointegration test and Granger causality test, the relationships between agricultural products export and agricultural economy in China from 1980 to 2004 are analyzed. It finds that there are long-term stable equilibrium relations between agricultural products＇ total export and agricultural GDP as well as between exports of labor-intensive and land-intensive agricultural products and agricultural GDP. There is a unidirectional Granger causality between agriculture products＇ total export and agricultural GDP and bidirectional granger causality between labor-intensive agricultural products and agricultural GDP. But there shows no Granger causality between land-intensive agricultural products and agricultural economic growth.