农村居民储蓄模型实证研究

An Empirical Study on Rural Residents Savings Model

文章利用1988-2004年的相关数据,基于单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验与Johansen协整检验结果,并通过脉冲响应函数、方差分解及相关冲击图形等方法,对影响我国农村居民储蓄行为的主要因素进行了实证研究,进而构建出相对应的农村居民储蓄决定模型。研究结果表明:(1)长期以来,我国农村居民的收入水平是影响其储蓄的主要因素,即收入水平的多寡在很大程度上决定着储蓄规模的高低;(2)我国农民的消费能力同样也在相当程度上影响着农村居民储蓄存款的规模和变化趋势,其消费水平的变化对储蓄的冲击效应明显;(3)现阶段,以个人固定资产投资为主的农村居民投资行为对储蓄的影响有限。

This paper makes use of related data during 1988 - 2004, based on whole examination result of unit root examination, Granger causality the relation examines and Johansen cointegration approach etc.. Then the author analyzes main factors affected behavior of Chinese rural resident＇s deposit and sets up a model to examine the characteristic of rural resident＇s savings. The research result shows that （ 1 ） for a long time, income level of rural residents is a main factor to affect their savings ; （ 2 ） the consumption of farmers also affects the scale of their deposit on trend and degree; （3） the behavior of rural resident＇s investment hardly affects savings in short run.