国际贸易结构分析:贸易品的技术分布被引量：441

Analyzing the Foreign Trade Structure Based on Technologies of Traded Goods

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摘要对国际贸易结构的理论与经验研究已经充分揭示了技术在贸易中的重要作用。但是,对于如何识别贸易品的技术差异,如何分析贸易品的技术分布状况,进而如何从技术分布来分析贸易结构等,目前还没有非常成熟的方法。本文试图通过完善关志雄(2002)在这方面的努力来提供基于贸易品技术分布的贸易结构分析法。本文用显示技术附加值赋值原理作为识别贸易品技术附加值高低的理论基础,然后根据这一原理提供了具体的赋值方法,并提出了四种基于贸易品技术分布的贸易结构分析方法,分别是:竞争互补指数、竞争压力指数、技术高度曲线和贸易品高低技术分类分析法。最后,本文用上述方法分析了中国的对外贸易结构。 International trade theory found that technology played important parts in determining foreign trade structure. The difficulty is, however, how to identify the differences between technologies of traded goods, how to map the technological distribution of traded goods and how to analyze trade patterns based on differences of technological advances among trading panner countries. This paper attempts to provide a method of analyzing trade structure based on technological distribution of traded goods that is built on the Principle of Revealed Value-added by Technology. Based on this method, we try to establish Competitiveness- Complementarities Index for trade,the Competitive Stress Index, the Curve of Technology and the classification for high-tech and low-tech traded goods. In addition,this paper analyzes the China＇ s trade structure in the context of moving to regional free trade agreement（FFA）.

作者樊纲关志雄姚枝仲晓鸥(校对)

机构地区中国改革基金会国民经济研究所日本野村资本市场研究所中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所不详

出处《经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第8期70-80,共11页 Economic Research Journal

关键词贸易结构附加值技术分布 Foreign Trade Structure Value-added of Technology Technological Distribution of Traded Goods

分类号 F740 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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参考文献14

1关志雄.从美国市场看“中国制造”的实力——以信息技术产品为中心[J].国际经济评论,2002(4):5-12. 被引量：195
2Baldwin, Robert E., 1971, "Determinants of the Commodity Structure of U.S. Trade", American Economic Review, Vol. 61, No. 1, Mar.,pp. 126- 146.
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4Davis, Weinstein, Bradford and Shimpo, 1997, "Using International and Japanese Regional Data to Determine when the Factor Abundance Theory of Trade Works", American Economic Review, June, 87:3, pp.421-446.
5Grossman, G. M. and Helpman, E., 1995, "Technology and Trade", in Handbook of International Economics, Vol.3, Grossman, G. M.and Rogoff, eds. Amsterdam: North Holland.
6Grubel, H. and Lloyd, P., 1975, Intra-industry Trade: The Theory and Measurement of International Trade in Differentiated Products,London: Macmillan.
7Helpman, E., 1999, "The Structure of Foreign Trade", Journal of Economic Perspective, Vol. 13, No. 2, Spr. pp. 121- 144.
8Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. R., 1985, Market Structure and Foreign Trade, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
9Hirschman, Albert 0., 1943, "The Commodity Structure of World Trade", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 57, No.4, Aug., pp.565-595.
10Leontief, Wassily, 1953, "Domestic Production and Foreign Trade: The American Capital Position Re-Examined", Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 97, Sept. 1953. Also Reprinted in Economia Internazionale, vii(1954).

二级参考文献6

1JETRO:《JTRO贸易白皮书》,日本贸易振兴会,2000.
2[日]黑田笃郎:《中国制造》,东洋经济新报社,2001.
3用这种方法计算出来的个别产品的附加值指标不是固定的,是随着时代的发展而变化的.例如,起初只有先进国家才有能力出口的产品,具体反映在当时的高附加值指标上,但随着生产向发展中国家的转移,该产品的附加值也会下降.而且,在实际的计算过程中,采用人均GDP的对数值代替了人均GDP的数值.
4严格来说,为了将非连续的分布描成连续的分布,不可能简单地把个别产品的份额和它的附加值指标一一对应起来,而必须沿着附加值指标按照一定的区间将产品分组,然后计算它们的份额.
5假设全世界的(时美)出口构造高度化指标(=构成商品项目的附加值指标的加权平均)为MW,构成商品项目的附加值指标的标准偏差为σW,A国的(对美)出口构造高度化指标为MA,那么,A国的(对美)出口构造的偏差值可按下式计算.MA-MW偏差值=MA-MW/σW×10+50
6但随着生产向发展中国家的转移,该产品的附加值也会下降.而且,在实际的计算过程中,采用人均GDP的对数值代替了人均GDP的数值.