濮阳市多时间尺度气温变化及对粮食生产的影响

Multi-timescale Temperature Change in Puyang, Henan Province and Its Effects on Grain Production

利用线性分析方法,分析濮阳多时间尺度气温的变化特征及气候趋暖对粮食生产的影响。结果表明:冬、夏季和年平均气温升、降温趋势分别为0.23～0.46℃/10a、-0.05～-0.11℃/10a和0.14℃/10a;年高(≥35℃)、低(≤-10℃)温日数分别以3.36天/10a和2.35天/10a的趋势减少;日平均气温稳定通过0℃的初日提前4.91/10a、终日推后1.02天/10a,日平均气温稳定通过20℃的终日延长2.0天/10a;1987年以来濮阳相继出现17个暖冬,严重暖冬年份皆出现在1995年以后。当地引种的小麦品种冬性减弱,播种期推后,越冬期缩短,生育期延长。病虫害有加重趋势,农药、化肥用量增加。结论认为:当地气侯变化具有冬趋暖夏趋凉的特征,高低温危害减少,积温的有效性增加,作物生长期与灌浆期延长;自上世纪90年代中期以来,异常暖冬事件增多,近10年是50年以来最暖的10年。同时冬季平均气温年际间波幅增大,春季气温不稳定,气温变化的不确定性增加。气候变暖对当地粮食生产有利因素较多,但不利因素也很突出,如何趋利避害,确保粮食安全是需要进一步研究的问题。

The characteristics of multi-timescale temperature change in Puyang, Henan Province and its effects on grain production caused by the warming-up climate are analyzed. The results are as follows. The temperatures in winter and in summer float respectively with the value 0.23-0.46℃/10a and -0.05--0.11℃/10a, while the annual average is 0.14℃/10a. The annual high temperature （daily maximum temperature as high as or higher than 35℃）/low temperature （daily minimum temperature as low as or lower than -10℃） day decrease at 3.36 days per 10-year and 2.35 days per 10-year. The first day when the average daily temperature keeps above 0℃ steadily shifts 4.91 days earlier per 10-year, while the last day shifts 1.02 days later per 10-year. Besides, the last day when the average daily temperature keeps above 20℃ steadily shifts 2.0 days later per 10-year. There have been 17 warm winters ever since 1987 in puyang, with the most typical ones happening after 1995. The breed of wheat introduced to Puyang gets weaker in winter nature with postponed sowing date, shorter overwintering period and longer growing period. As a consequence, plant diseases and insect pests tend to be more serious and much agricultural chemical and fertilizer have to be applied. It shows that the local climate is changing with the tendency of warmer winter and cooler summer. Therefore, the damage caused by high or low temperature decreases, the efficiency of accumulated temperature increases and plants obtain a longer growing and milking period. Ever since the mid-1990s, more events of unusual warm winter happen. The last ten-year are the warmest one for the last 50 years. Mean while, the annual change of the average temperature in winter is with larger amplitude, while the temperature in spring tends to be poor in stability. Although there exist more advantages for the local grain production in warmer climate, disadvantages stand out at the same time. It is necessary to study how to ensure grain safety by pursuing gains and avoiding losses.