中国居民2002年营养不良及贫血对未来劳动生产力的影响

Study on the effect of malnutrition and anemia identified among general population in 2002 to the future productivity in China

目的定量描述营养不良带来的社会劳动生产力损失及其对经济发展消极影响。方法根据2002年“中国居民营养与健康状况调查”得到的人群贫血状况及儿童生长迟缓的调查数据,分析其对当前及未来10年劳动生产力的影响。利用PROFILES模型估算由于两种类型劳动生产力损失:“未来损失”是0-5岁儿童的生长迟缓及儿童期间贫血估算的;“当前损失”是根据现在成人劳动力中因贫血引起的损失。结果在未来的10年中,如果保持现有患病率水平,因儿童生长迟缓及人群缺铁性贫血造成的劳动生产力损失是巨大的,达2817亿元(人民币),相当于2002年国内生产总值的2．70％,其中生长迟缓占0．15％,成人贫血为0．46％,儿童贫血为2．09％。研究提到的所有效益都是在忽略实际投入成本的假设前提下描述的,确切地说应该是劳动生产力的损失。结论社会经济的良性发展与营养改善和干预项目都对人群营养状况有着相当大的改善作用,投资回报与社会效益显著。

Objective To measure the social productivity loss and negative effect to economic development due to malnutrition in view of quantitative analysis. Methods Using the data of childhood stunting and population anemia status, collected by 2002 National Nutrition and Health Survey to analyse the effect on present and future productivity. PROFILES model was used to estimate two kinds of productivity losses： ＂Future productivity loss＂ was figured out based on the data of stunting and anemia status in 0-5 year-old children while ＂Current productivity loss＂ was from anemia data of the adults. Results If current prevalence levels of malnutrition remained unchange over the next ten years （from 2002 to 2012）, the total net present value of future productivity lost would be 281.7 billion Yuan（RMB）, equivalent to 2.70 % of the Gross Domestice Product（GDP） in 2002, with the productivity losses due to stunting, anemia in adults and children were 0.15 % , 0.46 % and 2.09 % of the 2002 GDP, respectively. All the results of calculation mentioned above was restricted with the same assumption -- the ignorance of the real cost. Conclusion The social economic development and the improvement of nutrition program would have a huge effect to population nutritional status. The social benefit and return on investment should be significant.