生态旅游环境承载力预警系统研究

THE RESEARCH ON EARLY WARNING SYSTEM OF ECO-TOURISM ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY

随着生态旅游的兴起,旅游可持续发展概念的提出,国内外对生态旅游环境承载力的研究从理论和实践上不断丰富和完善,但其单维和静态研究成为其研究发展方向上的一块难以逾越的障碍,本文正是在关注旅游生态系统和环境质量的时空演化和变化的基础上,提出运用预警理论和方法来多维分析由于旅游活动导致和产生的旅游环境的变化过程,以解决现今生态旅游环境承载力研究缺乏综合性、系统性、动态性和预警性的现实性问题。同时本文从系统论、控制论、决策论的角度,对生态旅游环境承载力预警系统的结构、特点、运行机制,基本数学模型进行了初步研究。

with the development of eco-tourism all over the world and advancing the concepts of tourism sustainable development, many researchers are focusing on it and doing lots of researches from the theories to practices to fulfill and Consummate it. Authors in this article penetrate that most previous researches of eco-tourism environmental carrying capacity were centralized on the qualitative analysis such as studying of theory conception or research significance, only few articles, which concerning the quantitative analysis, mainly focused on eco-tourism environmental carrying capacity from the angleof single dimension （space）, but from this research angle it can not be illuminated the complex interrelation and randomicity of environmental space-time Of the relation of life and geographic environment. The reasons mentioned above result in the outcome that the current researches faced a huge limitations and obstacles, it means most ofthemdid the researches from the angle of＇single dimension and static state which can＇t reflect and discover the inner relationships of many factors. In this paper, authors concentrate these limitations and put forward in paying more attention to eco-tourism system and tourism environmental quality,which ued the early warning theory to do some research experiment, which based on the multidimensional angles of sequential change of space-time of eco-tourism system and tourism environmental quality to resolve the current problems that lacks of characteristics of synthesis, systematization, dynamic and early warning. In this article, authors consider and apply ＂time＂ factor into the research to overcome the previous limitations on the single dimension and static state, and import the conception and calculational methods of＂speed change＂ withtime factor in eco-tourism environmental carrying capacity to investigate the dynamic change of it. nloieover author brings the conception of speed change acceleration of eco-tourism environmental carrying capacity to explain how it changes.