新疆冲洪积扇区多层结构含水层地下水系统预报模型的比较

Comparison on the Prediction Model of Groundwater System with Multilayer Structure Aquifer of Alluvial-pluvial Fan in Xinjiang

冲洪积扇在新疆分布广泛,研究此类结构的地下水预报模型对合理开发利用区域水资源、预防地下水过量开采造成的地质灾害有着重要的理论与实践意义。通过对玛纳斯河流域和阿图什哈拉峻地区水文地质概念模型及数理模型的建立、模型数值求解方法及模型预报精度的对比分析,为建立具有一定预报精度的冲洪积扇区多层结构含水层地下水资源预报模型提供了解决思路及参考依据。

The groundwater system of alluvial-pluvial fan distribute abroad in Xinjiang, it has important theory and practice meaning to study the prediction model of this structure in order to exploit and using the water resource in reason and prevent the geologic disaster by excessive mining. This paper compared the foundation methods about hydrological geologic notional model and mathematical-physical model, the ways to seek the numerical results along with the prediction precision of models to the forecast models establishing process in Halajun area and Manas plain in Xinjiang. All these provide some thoughts for setting up groundwater prediction model possessing a certainty precision on different hydrological geologic characteristic and aquifer structure characteristic of alluvial-pluvial fan, at the same time offering the reference ground for the selection of forecast model in practice.