从灾害链角度讨论2005年九江5.7级地震的预测

Discussion on the prediction of Jiujiang earthquake(M_S5.7) on November 26,2005 from the view point of disaster chain

从月亮赤纬最大年和台风地震灾害链讨论了2005年九江5.7级地震的预测问题。这是灾害链预测地震的指标之一。月亮赤纬最大年垂向引潮力对九江地区的地震有触发作用。台风向内陆深入并奔向九江地区,这可能是震前大范围地下放出热气形成的低压对台风的吸引。上述两因素的重合对预测地震的地区是有用的,考虑到九江地区和附近麻城地区曾发生过5级和6级地震,这对预测九江地区地震的震级是个参考。

From the year of the greatest declination of the moon and the disaster chain of typhoon and earthquake, the prediction of the Jiujiang earthquake （Ms5.7） on November 26 of 2005 is discussed. It is one of indices for predicting earthquake by disaster chain. The vertical component of tidal force during the year of greatest declination of the moon has trigger effect on the earthquake occurrence in Jiujiang-Macheng region. Typhoon penetrating to inner mainland of China and migrating toward the Jiujiang region means the low pressure formed by degassing in large extent before the earthquake attract the Typhoon. The superposition of the above-mentioned two factors is useful for predicting earthquake occurrence region. Considering Ms5 earthquake and Ms6 earthquake occurred in Jiujiang and Macheng in 1911 and 1932 respectively, it is a reference of estimation for predicting the earthquake magnitude.