资本项目开放对经常项目的影响——基于中国经验的实证分析（1982～2004）

Influence of Capital Account on Current Account

本文基于资本项目对经常项目影响机制分析的基础上,采用时间序列计量技术,在经常项目、资本项目、实际汇率和GDP等4个变量框架内实证分析了中国资本项目变动对经常项目的影响。结果显示,4个变量之间存在长期的协整关系,资本项目、实际汇率和GDP是经常项目的Granger因,资本项目顺差的扩大和实际汇率的贬值导致经常项目盈余增加,GDP的增加会减少经常项目顺差。其政策含义在于,可通过对资本项目等有关宏观经济变量的控制来有效地调节我国经常项目收支状况。

On the basis of probing into the mechanism about how the capital account affects the current account and by the means of time series analysis, this paper empirically tests the relationship between the capital account and the current account in China within a 4 variables system. It discovers that, there is a long - term co-integration among the current account, the capital account, the real exchange rate and GDP in China. There is an unidirectional causality from the capital account, the real exchange rate and GDP to the current account. The increasing capital account surplus and the devaluating real exchange rate improve the current account; the increasing GDP deteriorates the current account. The policy implication is that, the current account could be effectively adjusted by controlling some key macro - variables including capital account.