摘要
根据山西省长治县气象站1980年1月至2000年12月的月蒸发量时间序列的随机变化特征,探讨了建立蒸发量变化的自回归滑动平均(ARMA)(p,q)模型的方法,并对蒸发量进行了预测,为研究随机的水文气象特征量提供了一个新途径。
According to the random change features of the monthly evaporating capacity in time series form January, 1980 to December,2000 of the meteorological station of Changzhi County, Shanxi Province, this paper probes into the method for establishing the auto-regressive moving average ARMA model of the evaporating capacity change, and forecasts the evaporating capacity, which provides a kind of new path for studying on the random hydro-meteorological characteristics ouantitv.
出处
《科技情报开发与经济》
2006年第24期189-190,共2页
Sci-Tech Information Development & Economy
关键词
月蒸发量
随机模型
自相关函数
偏相关系数
monthly evaporating capacity
random model
self-correlation function
partial correlation coefficient
