针对瓦斯事故的安全投资效益评估方法研究

New method for assessing safety investment benefits due to mining gas accidents

煤矿生产中瓦斯事故的发生及其危害程度的不确定性使得定量评价损失很困难。本文提出一种评估煤矿瓦斯事故严重程度和相关安全投资效益的方法。通过分析影响煤矿瓦斯事故发生的主要因素,利用专家调查法推断出瓦斯事故的发生概率和严重程度,进而估计出瓦斯事故的风险度并定量评价相关的安全投资效益。通过这种方法,可以提出各种安全投资方案并进行安全投资效益比较,据此选择安全投资效益最好的安全投资方案进行安全投资决策,最大限度地降低煤矿瓦斯事故的发生概率和危害程度。实例分析表明这种方法是有效的。

The present article is aimed at introducing the author＇s developed method for assessing the hazard degree and its related safety investment benefits due to the mining gas accidents. As is known, gas aceidents in coal-mining production and the hazards are mutually affected and indeterminable during a definite period, which makes it very difficult to quantitatively assess the loss to be caused by the would-be accidents. To solve the problem, the paper has analyzed and evaluated the primary factors involving gas accidents and obtained their occurrence probability and hazard degree by means of an expert system. As a result, it has worked out their risk degree and the corresponding benefits to be gained from the safety investment, With the newly developed method, various safety investment schemes can be proposed and their investment benefits can be assessed. In so doing, the best safety investment scheme with highest safety investment benefits can be selected to make safety investment decision as to the occurrence probability and dangerous degree of gas accidents that may exist in a coal mine, Finally, a case study shows the effectiveness and validity of the proposed method.