层次分析法在单沟泥石流危险度评价中的应用

Application of AHP in single debris flow risk assessment

单沟泥石流危险度评价是泥石流危险性评价中的重要内容,对实现山区的安全减灾有着重要意义。文章从系统理论出发,运用层次分析法(AHP)对影响泥石流沟谷危险度的相关因子进行分析,构建单沟泥石流危险度评价的层次指标系统,并对各参与评价因子的权重作了计算,建立起单沟泥石流危险度评价模型。通过对泥石流沟的实例验证,评价结果与实际情况有较好的一致性。该方法将定量与定性相结合,能很好地解决泥石流危险度综合评价问题,对提高泥石流危险度评价的可靠性、准确性及客观性有一定的实践意义。

Single debris flow risk assessment is one of the crucial for safety mitigation in country. From the view of important tasks of risk assessment of debris flow disaster, which is system theory, this article uses AHP to analyze the factors which affect debris flow, establishes hierarchy model indicators system of single debris flow risk assessment and gives weight to each factor. The study result has a high relativity to the fact. This method combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and is reasonable and objective to use to assess the risk of debris flow. It is importent to give scientific suggestions to government for making disaster mitigation plans.