气候观测系统及其相关的关键问题

Climate Observing System and Related Crucial Issues

地球系统中的大气圈、水圈、冰雪圈、岩石圈和生物圈构成了气候系统,气候系统中不同圈层之间的相互作用决定了气候的自然变化。由于人类活动的日益加剧,对气候系统已经产生了显著影响。气候的自然变化和人类活动导致的气候变化对社会经济的发展以及人民生活的影响日益加大,并涉及到国家安全、环境外交和可持续发展等一系列重大问题。要认识气候变化及其强迫因素、预测未来气候变化,最基础的工作是建立针对气候目的涉及到气候系统五大圈层的综合气候观测系统,以获取所需的高质量资料和相关产品,提供气候系统变化的详细信息。该文回顾了气候观测系统设计在中国的发展以及中国气象科学研究院在组织设计中国气候观测系统中的作用,并指出了在建立我国气候观测系统中存在的一些需要改进的方面。在对气候观测系统进行分析的基础上,指出了与建立气候观测系统相关的10个方面的关键问题,这些问题包括:气候观测系统的科学需求、气候观测系统的代表性、全面性、规范性、对气候预测和预估及模式发展的支撑性、多学科应用性、社会经济性、资料开放共享性以及气候系统资料的同化再分析和历史资料的抢救。

The climate system is composed of five spheres in the earth system, i.e., atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. The interaction among these spheres of climate system determines the natural climate variability. As the human activities increase, more and more influence has exerted on the climate system. Both natural and anthropogenic climate changes have influenced greatly on the society, the economics and the human life, and have led to the arousing of the issues on the national security, the environmental diplomacy and the sustainable development, etc. In order to understand the climate change and its forcings, and forecast the future climate change, the basic need is to set up a comprehensive climate observing system dealing with the five spheres in the earth system. The detailed information on the variation of the climate system can be provided by the high quality climate data and related products obtained from the climate observing system. The development of designing a climate observing system in China is reviewed, especially the role played by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. Based on the analysis of the climate observing system, some crucial issues concerning the setting up of the climate observing system are discussed. These issues include the scientific requirements to the climate observing system, its representativeness, comprehensiveness, standard, supportiveness to the climate prediction and projection and to the climate model development, application to the interdisciplinary, social and economical application, data opening and sharing, assimilation and reanalysis of the climate system data, and the rescue of the historical data.