中国气象科学研究院农业气象研究50年进展

Advances of Agro-meteorological Research in CAMS During Recent 50 Years

该文在简要回顾20世纪我国农业气象学科发展历程基础上,重点阐述了50年来中国气象科学研究院在农业气象各主要研究领域,包括农业气候资源与区划、农业产量气象预测与卫星遥感估产、农业气象灾害、气候变化影响评估、作物生长模拟与模式以及农业气象情报信息服务等所取得的若干重大进展,并从当前面临的挑战与机遇出发,探讨了中国气象科学研究院未来发展中在农业气象研究领域的可能热点趋势。

Agro-meteorology is mainly focused on the interactions of meteorological conditions with ecology and agricultural production and their mechanisms. The historyof about 100 years indicates that the development of agrometeorology is closely linked with the development of the national economy and the agricultural production. Particularly, since the end of 1970s, agro-meteorology in CAMS develops quickly and vigorously, and great achievements are gained. Some major issues of agro-meteorological research in CAMS during recent 50 years is described on the basis of a brief review of its historical development in China in last century. Based on the agro-climatic resources inventory and analyses on its geographic distribution, the national agroclimatic zoning has been completed using an agro-climatic index system and the classified zoning method. Some years later, the conceptions of the stereoscopic gradation and its agro-ecological exploitation are presented in studies on the mountain agro-climatic resources rational utilization in the subtropical and tropical areas in China. Agro-meteorological simulation and prediction models for major crops＇ yield in China have been developed and applied successfully in meteorological operation departments. Then, a national integrated estimation system of winter wheat yield by remote sensing of meteorological satellite is established and put into operation. All of these not only fill the gaps in agro-meteorology,but also develop the new methods of crop yield prediction, as well as contributed to provide a new way of meteorological services for agriculture. In the research on ＂Crop Water Stress and Drought in the North China Plain＂ a meteorological dryness model and the crop drought prediction methods are developed as well as an optimization for irrigation schedules is formulated and applied widely in North China. During the recent 10 years the new prediction methods, impact disk assessment and prevention techniques for the major agro-meteorological disasters in China have been achieved. Linking the climate-ecology models with the climate change scenario in the future, projected from 7 GCMs, a simulation at a resolution of 0.5 °× 0.5° is conducted, which indicates that the present distribution of characteristic vegetation and cropping system in China will change greatly due to the climate warming. An open-top chamber experiment shows that the fertilization effect induced by increasing CO2 will be favourable to crops. However, climate warming is not bound to cause the rising of the precipitation. As a result, favourable and unfavourable impacts would offset each other and lead to the reduction of crop output. Apart from both assessment models of climate abnormality, the impacts on double cropping rice production south to the Yangtze River and maize production in Northeast China with potential use in operation have also been developed. Based on the more than 10-year field experiments and computer growth simulation, a series of models for simulating the growth of wheat, rice （including double cropping rice） and maize have been established successfully. In the study on operation application, the above simulation models have been nested both into the regional climate models and the satellite dynamical monitoring by remote sensing. And a new type of forewarning model and method for agro-meteorological disasters is completed. Based on the establishment of a set of information analyzing and assessing indexes, agro-meteorological disaster indexes as well as the crop yield prediction models, the state-level operational agro-meteorological information service and crop output forecasting systems are exploited and developed. At present, the systems are able to provide a variety of analyzed information products and consultation service for the relevant government departments and the media. Great social and economical benefits are produced.