城市安全指数(ICS)模型、结构与功能分析

Model of Index of City Safety(ICS)& Analysis of Its Structure and Function

建立城市安全评价指标体系是分析、调控和建立和谐城市、和谐社区的前提.在首次提出城市安全指数(ICS)的基础上采用系统工程的方法建立城市安全指数模型.该模型的第1层次是目标层,即安全评价综合指数;第2层次是项目层,由城市不安全因素影响指数、城市不安全因素致灾过程抵御指数、城市不安全因素致灾后恢复指数构成;第3层次是评价因素层;第4层次是指标层.建立城市安全指数模型以科学性、可操作性为原则,采用AHP法,结合专家咨询,通过定性与定量控制确定项目层、因素层、指标层各指标的权重;以“灾害因素—致灾过程—抵御过程与结果—恢复过程与结果”的分析方法作为切入点,强调“过程”与“结果”分离,结合城市基础设施和安全环境进行城市安全评价,并对指标体系的结构和功能进行了分析.

It is the presupposition of analysis, adjusting, establish of the harmonious city and harmonious community that the limit degrees system to evaluating index of city safety（ICS） is established. Based on originally proposing ICS, the model of ICS is established with systematic engineering. The first class of the model is subject, i.e. synthetical index for safety evaluating; the second class of the model is item, including effecting index of city non-safety factor, resistance index during causing disaster process from city non-safety factor and resuming index after desaturation from city non-safety factor;the third class of the model is evaluating factor; the forth class of the model is quota.Science and easily operating are the principles for the ICS and the weights of item, factor, quota are made with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis by method of AHP after expert consulting. The analysis method of ＂desaster factor-causing desaster process-resistance process and result-resuming process and result＂ is the key for the research and ＂process＂ and ＂result＂are different absolutely, evaluating of city safety is based on basic infrastructure and safety environment, the structure and the function of the limit degrees system are analysed.