开放经济下的经济增长模型:中国的经验

The Economic Growth Model of an Open Economy

本文从三个方面，以8个分指标为基础构造了衡量对外开放程度的变量——对外开放度指数，该指数较传统的外贸依存度更好地刻画了1978-2003年间中国经济对外开放程度的变化过程。在此基础上，本文运用动态建模方法建立了开放经济下的经济增长模型，从短期和长期的角度动态地考察了对外开放对经济增长的影响，很好地模拟了开放经济下中国经济增长的变化规律。实证研究的结果证实了对外开放不仅在短期内有效地促进了经济增长，而且也显著地进入了长期均衡方程。

This paper constructs a new openness index, which is from 3 aspects and on the base of 8 sub-indexes, to scale the openness degree of economic system. The new index describes the openness course of Chinese economic system from 1978 to 2003. Secondly, this paper develops an economic growth model with the new openness index as an institutional variable, and by adopting the dynamic specification modeling approach. This model primely simulates the law of movement of China＇s economic growth under open economy. Empirical results prove that openness not only promotes economic growth in a short-run but also materially enters the long-run equilibrium function.