中国金融发展与城乡收入差距关系的再检验——基于面板单位根和VAR模型的估计

Reevaluation of the Relationships between Financial Development and Urban-Rural Income Disparity in China-an Empirical Study Based on Panel Unit Root and VAR Models

金融抑制被认为是导致我国扭曲的金融发展拉大了城乡收入差距的最主要原因,而东西部金融发展的市场化水平差异使得金融发展与城乡收入差距也表现出非完全一致的关系。本文运用面板单位根和VAR模型的实证结果表明,无论是东部还是西部地区,金融发展与城乡收入差距均表现为非同阶单整变量,从而并未支持二者之间长期均衡关系的存在;但从短期来看,西部金融发展显著的构成了城乡收入差距扩大的Granger原因,而这种因果关系在东部地区却并不显著。

Financial repression is taken for the primary factor that induces improper financial development that is positively correlated to urban-rural income disparity(URID) in China.The differences in financial liberalization between Eastern and Western regions make the relationships between financial development and URID unmatched in China.We find that URID and financial development are not uniformity integrated variables based on panel unit root and VAR model tests with panel data 1978-2004,thus the long-run equilibrium between the two variables does not exist.In the short-term however,the financial development is the Granger cause of the URID in Western region,but this causality is significantly rejected in Eastern region.