房价与地价关系的因果检验:1998-2006

A Causality Test for Housing and Land Prices:1998-2006

文章在考虑通货膨胀的条件下,利用我国1998-2006年的房价和地价的季度数据建立误差纠正模型(ECM),使用Granger因果检验方法对我国的房价和地价的关系进行实证检验,得出结论:短期而言,房价对地价没有影响,而地价是房价的Granger原因;长期来说,房价和地价存在双向因果关系。因此,要控制房价,短期内关键是抑制地价过快上涨;长期则要通过合理安排土地供给,加强住宅的建设规划引导,从而避免房地产价格的大起大落。

An error-correction model(EMC) was formed by considering inflation and using quarterly data from China housing market through 1998-2006 and tested by Granger-causality test.The paper concludes that land price is independent of housing price and land price is Granger cause of housing price in the short run,while housing and land price interact as both cause and effect in the long run.Thus the key to curb housing price is to control land price in the near future,and to rationalize land supply and to guide housing construction planning in the long term.