水泥生产排放二氧化碳的人口经济压力分析

Analysis of the Stresses of Population and Economic Growth on CO_2 Emissions from Cement Manufacturing

自1985年以来，中国水泥的生产量稳居世界第1位，在为我国基础设施建设提供保障的同时也排放出大量的二氧化碳．采用能揭示人为活动影响二氧化碳排放的定量分析模型——STIRPAT来探讨人口和经济增长对水泥行业排放二氧化碳的影响．结果表明：在能源消耗和工艺过程两大排放途径下，中国水泥行业32年（1971-2002年）内向大气排放了1．61×10^9t（碳当量）的二氧化碳；我国人口与经济（人均GDP）发展对二氧化碳排放的驱动作用分别为3．7，2．5-2．7，远高于全球平均水平；人口压力比经济的压力大1．1-1．2，证实了人口增长是环境降级的关键因子，表明控制人口增长是减少二氧化碳排放的关键措施；回归模型分析表明，环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线也适用于水泥生产排放二氧化碳，当人均GDP达到3522美元时二氧化碳排放量才能逐步减少．

China has led the world in the production of cement since 1985. Cement has supported the development of China＇s infrastructure and released lots of CO2 as well. Based on the fact that cement manufacturing was a significant contributor to CO2 emissions in China, a quantitative analyzing model, stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology （STIRPAT）, to reveal the stresses of population and economic growth on CO2 emissions in cement industry was introduced. The results showed that total CO2 emissions by this industry were 1.61 × 10^9 t of carbon （t C） in the past 32 years（1971-2002） from two sources （fossil energy use and production processing） ; the coefficients of population and economic growth for CO2 emissions were 3.7 and 2.5 ～ 2.7, respectively, larger than the global average level; and the population press was 1.1 ～ 1.2 larger than affluence （GDP per capita） stress in the models, it indicated that population was a key driving force to environment downgrade, and it also suggested that it was still important for Chinese government to control population; at last, the regression model of STIRPAT showed that the environmental Kuznets curve （EKC） was fit for cement manufacturing in China, carbon dioxide emission would decrease gradually after GDP per capita reached 3 522 USD in 2000 constant prices.