基于历史资料的中国北方草原火灾风险评价

Historical data-based risk assessment of fire in grassland of northen China

根据我国北方草原区各省、自治区1991-2005年的草原火灾资料,利用信息扩散理论和风险矩阵对我国北方草原区的草原火灾风险进行了计算,给出了我国北方各草原区的草原火灾年发生次数和草原火灾年受灾率在各个风险水平下的风险值,定量地评价了我国北方草原区的草原火灾风险。并给出几个重要风险水平下草原火灾风险的空间分布趋势和综合指标下的我国草原火灾风险空间分布趋势。

Using the data of grassland risk in every province and autonomous fire disasters in1991 -2005, authors calculated the value of grassland fire region by employing information diffusion theory and risk matrix to deal with the data of grassland fire disasters in grassland regions of northern China. In this paper, the risk values of annual grassland fire disaster frequency and affected area rate under various risk levels were presented. The grassland fire disaster risk levels of various regions in northem China were quantitatively .indicated and the spatial distribution tendency of grassland fire disaster riak was shown.